I have a bit longer term perspective than you, it seems. I bought BIR at $0.88 and receive $0.80 in dividends and my share have also appreciated, not that I expect to sell any time soon.
I explained why I am short MEG in the article. Birchcliff is making a lot of money for me, thanks. My 150,000 shares will give me $120,000 in dividends this year and probably next as well, although I suspect they may cut the dividend if gas prices remain low. You seem too focused on share price and not on economic returns. Since I rarely sell, I care not for share price fluctuations, just for value and with respect I think the value in MEG is compromised by poor management decisions despite excellent assets which may bite back if oil prices fall in an economic downturn, and I expect a downturn in 2024. MEG was $50 a share about a decade ago, has not paid a dividend, and has the same assets now as it had then except for the production sold. There is no doubt MEG will have strong results in a period of high AWB prices and I hope your MEG shares make you a lot of money, but I am going a different direction for the reasons I set out in the article.
in the real world, 99% of investors care about share price and "total returns" which = to share price + capital returns. Earning a high dividend that is not covered by the company's cash flows + losing even more through share price depreciation is not a winning recipe.
the current MEG management is not the same as the one where the company was high leveraged and made poor acquisitions.
a downturn in 2024 will impact both MEG and BIR both significantly, however BIR will get pummeled even more if they cut their dividend.
In the real world, 99% of investors underperform market indices and are persuaded they can make money by trading. Dividend payments are a financing decision and irrelevant to value - a fact that won Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani a Nobel prize for their "irrelevance theory". I don't think MEG, an organic SAGD producer, has ever made an acquisition and their new management is led by Derek Evans who presided over the death of Pengrowth Energy with similar policies to those he follows in MEG. If BIR gets "pummeled" for cutting their dividend, I will double up since the cut will not impact the value of their acreage or reserves or change their low operating cost structure. You only lose money through share price depreciation if you sell. Investors benefit more from low share prices than high ones, since it is tautalogical that if you pay more for an interest in a business you will suffer a lower return on your investment.
its quite sad how you see the world with tunnel vision, you would think that someone of your age would have learned more through life, but it seems your perspectives are actually quite closed minded and narrow. at this point, it's probably a bit too late to teach an old dog new tricks
It is hardly sad to grow old, rich and enjoy millions of dollars of investment gains while younger people like yourself who think they know better have rarely enjoyed as much success. I share my views openly for free to provide the benefit of age and experience to anyone interested. If you are not one one them, you can move on. I am totally open minded, benefit from debate and disagreement, but am unwilling to adopt nonsense as fact. Word like "turd" and "pummeled" don't make your points stronger, they make you seem weaker. I hope your investments work well for you.
You truly have the world figured out. Thank you for sharing your words of wisdom to us all. I'm sure you've changed many lives for the better with your "open-minded" views of the world and investing
I have to think the $27 a share can't be the average buy back price per share so perhaps the buyback of their preferred off the top of my head paying 7.25% so the reduction of debt and reduced interest payment could change your mind?
I hope it works out for you Harry. Any comment on the mismatch between reported revenue and my calculation based on reported production and reported pricing. Something is missing and I don't like the confusion it has caused me.
didn't you also say companies that do buybacks don't perform as well as companies that pay dividends
Well Meg energy has really shot a hole in that horrible thesis
How has Birchcliff energy done? it pays a 10% dividend and its down 20%+ this year
I have a bit longer term perspective than you, it seems. I bought BIR at $0.88 and receive $0.80 in dividends and my share have also appreciated, not that I expect to sell any time soon.
Meg is up 40% and BIR is down over 20%
That's a 60% differential, more than several years of gains.
why would you short one of the best oil sands producers in canada that is also likely on the M&A targets by larger producer
Shorting MEG makes no sense when there are much weaker E&PS with much worse balance sheets and less profitability.
Birchiff energy is a great example. That has been a HUGE turd and I believe you hold that too
I explained why I am short MEG in the article. Birchcliff is making a lot of money for me, thanks. My 150,000 shares will give me $120,000 in dividends this year and probably next as well, although I suspect they may cut the dividend if gas prices remain low. You seem too focused on share price and not on economic returns. Since I rarely sell, I care not for share price fluctuations, just for value and with respect I think the value in MEG is compromised by poor management decisions despite excellent assets which may bite back if oil prices fall in an economic downturn, and I expect a downturn in 2024. MEG was $50 a share about a decade ago, has not paid a dividend, and has the same assets now as it had then except for the production sold. There is no doubt MEG will have strong results in a period of high AWB prices and I hope your MEG shares make you a lot of money, but I am going a different direction for the reasons I set out in the article.
in the real world, 99% of investors care about share price and "total returns" which = to share price + capital returns. Earning a high dividend that is not covered by the company's cash flows + losing even more through share price depreciation is not a winning recipe.
the current MEG management is not the same as the one where the company was high leveraged and made poor acquisitions.
a downturn in 2024 will impact both MEG and BIR both significantly, however BIR will get pummeled even more if they cut their dividend.
In the real world, 99% of investors underperform market indices and are persuaded they can make money by trading. Dividend payments are a financing decision and irrelevant to value - a fact that won Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani a Nobel prize for their "irrelevance theory". I don't think MEG, an organic SAGD producer, has ever made an acquisition and their new management is led by Derek Evans who presided over the death of Pengrowth Energy with similar policies to those he follows in MEG. If BIR gets "pummeled" for cutting their dividend, I will double up since the cut will not impact the value of their acreage or reserves or change their low operating cost structure. You only lose money through share price depreciation if you sell. Investors benefit more from low share prices than high ones, since it is tautalogical that if you pay more for an interest in a business you will suffer a lower return on your investment.
its quite sad how you see the world with tunnel vision, you would think that someone of your age would have learned more through life, but it seems your perspectives are actually quite closed minded and narrow. at this point, it's probably a bit too late to teach an old dog new tricks
It is hardly sad to grow old, rich and enjoy millions of dollars of investment gains while younger people like yourself who think they know better have rarely enjoyed as much success. I share my views openly for free to provide the benefit of age and experience to anyone interested. If you are not one one them, you can move on. I am totally open minded, benefit from debate and disagreement, but am unwilling to adopt nonsense as fact. Word like "turd" and "pummeled" don't make your points stronger, they make you seem weaker. I hope your investments work well for you.
LOL!!
I guess money = happiness
You truly have the world figured out. Thank you for sharing your words of wisdom to us all. I'm sure you've changed many lives for the better with your "open-minded" views of the world and investing
your illogical comments are laughable
"you only lose money if you sell"
That's such a crock of shit for ppl who are constantly wrong about their investments.
If my stock goes from $100 to 5 cents and I don't sell, based on your logic, I haven't "lost" anything!!!
Thank you for your post on Friday, Twitter / X re. royalties!
I have to think the $27 a share can't be the average buy back price per share so perhaps the buyback of their preferred off the top of my head paying 7.25% so the reduction of debt and reduced interest payment could change your mind?
I hope it works out for you Harry. Any comment on the mismatch between reported revenue and my calculation based on reported production and reported pricing. Something is missing and I don't like the confusion it has caused me.