13 Comments

what's your opinion on Athabasca Oil especially after the JV with Cenovus

many thanks for all your comments, happy holidays

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The Duvernay JV will be a winner. The base SAGD business may come under pressure from lower WCS prices.

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Are you still long Nickel28?

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Yes. Added some recently. Patience will pay off.

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Any idea why Wcp has been so weak?

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Markets are inefficient and "weakness" is opportunity.

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So you don’t see any reason why Wcp is lagging? People complain that Wcp FCF is weak compared to peers. What’s your thought? Appreciate and thanks for the comments!

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Whitecap has excellent but under appreciated acreage in the Montney and the FCF concerns are short term. I like to see good assets trade at artificial discounts by as investors who focus on the next quarter make poor investment decisions rather than building a long term position in a strong asset base.

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Doesn't royalty % change on a sliding scale with higher/lower prices?

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Yes, and that is weakness of this sensitivity test.

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Dec 18, 2023
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Thanks Harry. Always great to get a recommendation devoid of analysis from someone who reads my articles. Birchcliff is up from the $0.88 I paid for it and paid $0.80 in dividends this year while my MEG short has been working for me. But I will take another look, and likely add to my Birchcliff holdings since your comment suggests it may be undervalued and I will keep my MEG short since TMX is delayed, AWB is falling, and MEG is spending too much money buying back stock and while holding great assets is vulnerable to a prolonged decline in AWB prices.

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Dec 18, 2023
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No, your facts are correct. We seem to disagree about the future, not the past.

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Dec 18, 2023
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Different views are what makes a market but I don't bet I am right since I am wrong far too often. My holdings are my bets. If natural gas prices are higher and oil prices lower you will lose, of course, and vice versa, but neither of us can predict the commodity prices.

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