I've been through this show before and my average cost of my Oilco's is miniscule and although I wish I could just keep getting the dividends if they do sell off to ridiculous levels again I'll just increase my positions and sell the excess back to the market when it becomes rational again. Rinse repeat.
BTW, you do realize that the companies which you applaud (CNQ/SU/CVE/IMO) are ALL RETURNING 75-100% of their FCF to shareholders mostly via buybacks right? Yet you call MEG and other companies "poorly managed" LOL
Actually, the buybacks are giving money to exiting shareholders, not "returning money to shareholders", and those companies have the financial strength to endure low oil prices but MEG does not nor does BTE.
another factually incorrect article. MEG has one of the best balance sheets in the entire industry, which is why they're paying 100% of FCF to shareholders
The fact that you continue to bash one of the best performing companies in Canada is mind blowing. You must suffer from FOMO because you didn't buy it since it didnt pay a dividend (oh look, now it does!!!)
I don't bash MEG, I just don't hold it. I did, made a lot of money on the holding MEG shares and left when their strategy demonstrated little chance for future income and plenty of risk. The NPV of MEG's reserves at a 12% discount rate = a per share value of $25, and the risk in oils is high enough that a 12% return doesn't interest me since it won't be achieved unless AWB stays at current levels or higher for 35 years and I deem that quite unlikely. Good luck with your investments, despite your typically negative comments I wish you every success with your investments.
Looks like I’m on the wrong path with BTE although it’s a small position I was hoping the Eagle Ford assets would help them get their balance sheet tidied up before the next price declines. It could become a really small position the way it’s looking 🤞
I've been through this show before and my average cost of my Oilco's is miniscule and although I wish I could just keep getting the dividends if they do sell off to ridiculous levels again I'll just increase my positions and sell the excess back to the market when it becomes rational again. Rinse repeat.
BTW, you do realize that the companies which you applaud (CNQ/SU/CVE/IMO) are ALL RETURNING 75-100% of their FCF to shareholders mostly via buybacks right? Yet you call MEG and other companies "poorly managed" LOL
Actually, the buybacks are giving money to exiting shareholders, not "returning money to shareholders", and those companies have the financial strength to endure low oil prices but MEG does not nor does BTE.
another factually incorrect article. MEG has one of the best balance sheets in the entire industry, which is why they're paying 100% of FCF to shareholders
The fact that you continue to bash one of the best performing companies in Canada is mind blowing. You must suffer from FOMO because you didn't buy it since it didnt pay a dividend (oh look, now it does!!!)
I don't bash MEG, I just don't hold it. I did, made a lot of money on the holding MEG shares and left when their strategy demonstrated little chance for future income and plenty of risk. The NPV of MEG's reserves at a 12% discount rate = a per share value of $25, and the risk in oils is high enough that a 12% return doesn't interest me since it won't be achieved unless AWB stays at current levels or higher for 35 years and I deem that quite unlikely. Good luck with your investments, despite your typically negative comments I wish you every success with your investments.
thanks for the article. I only recently found your substack and am subscribing!
any guesstimate on what the breakeven would be for headwater or athabasca ?
Looks like I’m on the wrong path with BTE although it’s a small position I was hoping the Eagle Ford assets would help them get their balance sheet tidied up before the next price declines. It could become a really small position the way it’s looking 🤞