It is a gamble for the company. They have long lived reserves, relatively low costs, modest debt (ca. $150 million), and a decent hedge book (about 40% of output hedged at about $5.00/Mcf and by conventional standards the shares are undervalued. But the company is fully-taxable (tax in 2022 over $100 million). If natural gas prices remain in the CAD$3.00 range, I value the shares at about CAD$5.00.
Wow, $5, I have not followed AAV at all, I thought the 100% completion of their buyback was notable. Obviously the company directors disagree with you since they are increasing their ownership. Me regarding NGas I have some TOU,TPZ,BIR, ERF(no longer Canadian holdings). Had sold my ARX, although if I was to add, it would be ARX or CR. CR is a longshot for completion of the pipeline to Kitimat in some reasonable timeframe.. It wouldnt surprise me to slip into 2026 despite positive progress:( Personally the only reason it and TMP is going ahead imo is China pushing it...
Thanks I appreciate the articles you publish
Regarding the recession, when do you expect it to be announced? End of Q2?
No idea. The economy is a slow-moving train wreck and recession seems inescapable.
AAV doesn't get much coverage but been buying back all the shares they can, 10% last year and they have just been approved for another 10%.
approval from the TSX to purchase for cancellation up to a maximum of 18,704,019 common shares,
as of April 1, 2022. As of March 31, 2023, the corporation had repurchased and cancelled 18,704,019 common shares under the expiring NCIB
It is a gamble for the company. They have long lived reserves, relatively low costs, modest debt (ca. $150 million), and a decent hedge book (about 40% of output hedged at about $5.00/Mcf and by conventional standards the shares are undervalued. But the company is fully-taxable (tax in 2022 over $100 million). If natural gas prices remain in the CAD$3.00 range, I value the shares at about CAD$5.00.
Wow, $5, I have not followed AAV at all, I thought the 100% completion of their buyback was notable. Obviously the company directors disagree with you since they are increasing their ownership. Me regarding NGas I have some TOU,TPZ,BIR, ERF(no longer Canadian holdings). Had sold my ARX, although if I was to add, it would be ARX or CR. CR is a longshot for completion of the pipeline to Kitimat in some reasonable timeframe.. It wouldnt surprise me to slip into 2026 despite positive progress:( Personally the only reason it and TMP is going ahead imo is China pushing it...
https://ceo.ca/api/sedi/?symbol=aav&amount=&transaction=&insider=