I see the debt disappearing by year end 2025, CDN$80 sustaining capital, and free cash flow reaching CDN$165 million at $80 U.S. for oil (CDN$107) and CDN$4.00 for gas, and agree with Nuttall that 10 x FCF is in the ballpark of sensibility for valuation, so CDN$1.65 billion over 37 million shares = ~CDN$45 per share. Markets look ahead and will discount 2026 in 2025. Lots of assumptions and I have used those favorable to BNE, so not etched in stone, but a tail risk that I like. My Black Scholes model uses stochastic methodology so inferred commodity prices may be higher (or worse) than Nuttall's assumptions. I admit $45 is a stretch, but $20 is more likely than not in my opinion.
MB: I think the "end of period" stock pricing you used is somewhat different than what BNN used for its calculations (particularly for CVE, which is north of $27). When you use their end of term prices (I couldn't figure out if it was opening prices today, or some intra-day price at the moment the stock was being discussed) and your calculation methodology, I made it a 15.1% gain across the three stocks; with dividends it took it to like 17.7%.
And you don't lose anything, however this might come out: some good charity will benefit and you'll get that tax receipt!
Enjoyed this article as I usually do. Bought Baytex in the low $5 range prior to it getting to $9 back in 2022. Have been holding ever since. Looking forward to more free cash flow going towards buybacks & seeing a further dividend increase. It has been a laggard compared to CNQ & MEG. Also been suffering with TVE however I decided in 2021 to buy quite a few Canadian O&G names for the long term & now that many will be debt free or reaching certain internal debt levels that will see far more free cash flow coming back to shareholders…… I intend to ride it out along with my 2022 Uranium buys. Have done better there & we are in very early days with Nuclear finally gaining some acceptance despite many climate alarmists trying to shut it down.
Mike, how do you get $45 for BNE? Management say they only have ~2-3yrs of tier one left although they have 19yrs of reserve life.
I see the debt disappearing by year end 2025, CDN$80 sustaining capital, and free cash flow reaching CDN$165 million at $80 U.S. for oil (CDN$107) and CDN$4.00 for gas, and agree with Nuttall that 10 x FCF is in the ballpark of sensibility for valuation, so CDN$1.65 billion over 37 million shares = ~CDN$45 per share. Markets look ahead and will discount 2026 in 2025. Lots of assumptions and I have used those favorable to BNE, so not etched in stone, but a tail risk that I like. My Black Scholes model uses stochastic methodology so inferred commodity prices may be higher (or worse) than Nuttall's assumptions. I admit $45 is a stretch, but $20 is more likely than not in my opinion.
Should equalize the field by taking off his management % as a - and yours is a 0 at years end
MB: I think the "end of period" stock pricing you used is somewhat different than what BNN used for its calculations (particularly for CVE, which is north of $27). When you use their end of term prices (I couldn't figure out if it was opening prices today, or some intra-day price at the moment the stock was being discussed) and your calculation methodology, I made it a 15.1% gain across the three stocks; with dividends it took it to like 17.7%.
And you don't lose anything, however this might come out: some good charity will benefit and you'll get that tax receipt!
Cheers.
For how do you feel of Wcp? It has always been lagging behind cpg
I see a lot of long term gains in Whitecap, dont' care about the trading price relative to CPG
Enjoyed this article as I usually do. Bought Baytex in the low $5 range prior to it getting to $9 back in 2022. Have been holding ever since. Looking forward to more free cash flow going towards buybacks & seeing a further dividend increase. It has been a laggard compared to CNQ & MEG. Also been suffering with TVE however I decided in 2021 to buy quite a few Canadian O&G names for the long term & now that many will be debt free or reaching certain internal debt levels that will see far more free cash flow coming back to shareholders…… I intend to ride it out along with my 2022 Uranium buys. Have done better there & we are in very early days with Nuclear finally gaining some acceptance despite many climate alarmists trying to shut it down.