Big fan of your commentary and insights. I want to learn more about the Black Scholes valuation method you applied to MEG. Is it possible to get a copy of the spreadsheet you used for MEG so that I can study the formulas used in the valuation? If not, are there resources available where I can obtain a better understanding of the method. Thank you.
MIT offers a course on black scholes (or did in the past anyway). It was incredibly dry. I wish at the time i made excel spread sheets for resource stocks. There is many spread sheets out there not specific to resource but still usable. The problem with black scholes is you're plugging in assumptions and calculating things that can't be quantified.
I disagree. Log-normal probabilities are readily calculated. Black-Scholes is the solution to differential equations and commodity prices are log-normally distributed based on empirical observations, noted in many studies.
Sorry I guess I want clear i was suggesting because you're plugging in too many assumptions the equation loses value. Otherwise everyone would do BS and be billionaires.
Does the fact that MEG doesn’t pay a dividend make you choose not to own it? Your article is one of the best explanations on company valuation models I’ve read yet, btw. Thanks for putting this out. Rereading it now:)
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project runs from Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge Marine Terminal and the Chevron refinery in Burnaby, British Columbia. It will twin an existing oil pipeline that was built in 1953.
It was being built by a Private company before it was forced out by endless redtapes and moving goalpost by the liberal government.
When the government realized it had killed the golden goose, it forked out 4 billions of taxpayers money to continue building it the cost of which has skyrockected to 22 billions!
I make a point of reading articles by old, old school guys. Very well written and informative. Thanks for posting.
Great article are prices in US or CAD?
$CAD
Big fan of your commentary and insights. I want to learn more about the Black Scholes valuation method you applied to MEG. Is it possible to get a copy of the spreadsheet you used for MEG so that I can study the formulas used in the valuation? If not, are there resources available where I can obtain a better understanding of the method. Thank you.
MIT offers a course on black scholes (or did in the past anyway). It was incredibly dry. I wish at the time i made excel spread sheets for resource stocks. There is many spread sheets out there not specific to resource but still usable. The problem with black scholes is you're plugging in assumptions and calculating things that can't be quantified.
I disagree. Log-normal probabilities are readily calculated. Black-Scholes is the solution to differential equations and commodity prices are log-normally distributed based on empirical observations, noted in many studies.
Sorry I guess I want clear i was suggesting because you're plugging in too many assumptions the equation loses value. Otherwise everyone would do BS and be billionaires.
What is your beef with Derek Evans?
Pengrowth.
You didn't even make him use Google. Maybe he'll read up about their demise.
Look at where he worked previously and what happened at said company.
Thank you
why would you buy a stock that doesnt pay a dividend??
You criticize buybacks yet pick a company that ONLY does buybacks LOL!!!
I picked the company for an article, I didn't buy any and don't hold any MEG. LOL yourself.
nice, stick with your dividend paying stocks as MEG rockets higher with ramped up buybacks
I guess I’m puzzled why Eric Nuttall keeps recommending MEG but it pays no dividends. Rafi of Canoe also has it in portfolio
because buybacks are far far better than dividends esp for undervalued companies trading at LOW LOW multiples
Dividends are DOUBLE TAXED at the company and individual level
Buybacks are taxed once
Does the fact that MEG doesn’t pay a dividend make you choose not to own it? Your article is one of the best explanations on company valuation models I’ve read yet, btw. Thanks for putting this out. Rereading it now:)
Zero hedge loss and billions tax pool going into 2023.
Higher royalties will mostly offset by lesser interest paid as they are paying off debt aggresively.
TMX towards completion adds to the gravy train.
I’m new to o and G investing. Help me out: what’s TMX?
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project runs from Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge Marine Terminal and the Chevron refinery in Burnaby, British Columbia. It will twin an existing oil pipeline that was built in 1953.
It was being built by a Private company before it was forced out by endless redtapes and moving goalpost by the liberal government.
When the government realized it had killed the golden goose, it forked out 4 billions of taxpayers money to continue building it the cost of which has skyrockected to 22 billions!
Thanks for helping understand that. Liberals need to be voted out. JT is not oil friendly prime minister