Mr. Blair. I really enjoy and appreciate your writings and commentary. I’m wondering if you have every heard of or read any of Adam Rozencwajg writings, of Goehring & Rozencwajg? He wrote an extremely interesting piece in their Q1 2022 market commentary (published around mid May) titled “The Gas Crisis is Coming to America”. Similar to you he believes NA nat gas prices will be rising in the near future 6-9 months to equal world LNG pricing for two reasons 1) due to the influence of the expanding LNG export capacity and 2) their belief that the Marcellus is within months of topping off on its production growth and will begin to roll over much as the Haynesville and Barnett plays have already done. His paper gives fair bit of background on how/why they have come to this conclusion. If you have not read it I could forward a cooy if you gave me an email address to do so.
I would love to hear your thoughts on their thesis and their call on the timing of when they feel this will start to happen (next 6-9 months).
You beat me to it. I was also going to ask. As I understand it from their writings/analysis, the world is pretty close to zero extra pumping capacity, because the Saudi's probably don't have as much spare (or any) spare capacity and oil demand keeps going up. And the energy transition ...(drum roll please) ... requires fossil fuel and probably increases demand:) From my perspective, their suggestion of a 20 % allocation to natural resources equity is sound.
Hi Christian, while the paper I referenced spoke specifically regarding Nat. gas and not crude oil, especially as relates potential and timing of North American pricing marrying to the world price of LNG/nat gas, (as the crude prices effectively already do with wti and brent). But as regards low inventories/production and likelihood of prices staying higher going forward the same does apply. I similarly feel a larger weighting to oil and nat gas equities have a lot of potential. Thanks for comments. Hope you have a nice weekend. 🙂
Surely the short term NG prices in the US will increase straight after the Midterms - i.e. once Freeport back up and running again?
It's also looking increasingly likely that Russia will be turning down further (or off altogether) the gas supply to Europe. Russia now has less need for the west, achieving higher prices for products & the Ruble up 60% since the start of the conflict. There is no rush on their part to negotiate.
Iran, however, may be the wildcard in all this - not only with their own product hitting the market, but as a proxy for some Russian oil too.
If / when China invades Taiwan, then we're probably looking at WWIII.....banks, tech & fiat money might not be the best investment in those circumstances?
A world war will create a massive investment opportunity for those with the courage to buy during the market collapse that it will trigger. I think a war over Taiwan is unlikely - Biden is too weak to react any more than he did in Ukraine despite the Budapest agreement commitments.
Mr. Blair. I really enjoy and appreciate your writings and commentary. I’m wondering if you have every heard of or read any of Adam Rozencwajg writings, of Goehring & Rozencwajg? He wrote an extremely interesting piece in their Q1 2022 market commentary (published around mid May) titled “The Gas Crisis is Coming to America”. Similar to you he believes NA nat gas prices will be rising in the near future 6-9 months to equal world LNG pricing for two reasons 1) due to the influence of the expanding LNG export capacity and 2) their belief that the Marcellus is within months of topping off on its production growth and will begin to roll over much as the Haynesville and Barnett plays have already done. His paper gives fair bit of background on how/why they have come to this conclusion. If you have not read it I could forward a cooy if you gave me an email address to do so.
I would love to hear your thoughts on their thesis and their call on the timing of when they feel this will start to happen (next 6-9 months).
Again thanks for your writings and commentary.
Regards
Murray Venance
murrayvenance@gmail.com
Send me a copy. michael.blair@gmail.com. Great input from the sounds of it.
You beat me to it. I was also going to ask. As I understand it from their writings/analysis, the world is pretty close to zero extra pumping capacity, because the Saudi's probably don't have as much spare (or any) spare capacity and oil demand keeps going up. And the energy transition ...(drum roll please) ... requires fossil fuel and probably increases demand:) From my perspective, their suggestion of a 20 % allocation to natural resources equity is sound.
Hi Christian, while the paper I referenced spoke specifically regarding Nat. gas and not crude oil, especially as relates potential and timing of North American pricing marrying to the world price of LNG/nat gas, (as the crude prices effectively already do with wti and brent). But as regards low inventories/production and likelihood of prices staying higher going forward the same does apply. I similarly feel a larger weighting to oil and nat gas equities have a lot of potential. Thanks for comments. Hope you have a nice weekend. 🙂
Thanks very much Michael. I appreciate your analysis
Would appreciate your thoughts on this....
.https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1565759390782742529/photo/1
Basically saying Nord Stream 1 now closed for the foreseeable future.
I doubt there will be much further inventory build for winter now.
This is a response to the proposed price cap on Russian oil - the west is being led by complete morons!
Surely the short term NG prices in the US will increase straight after the Midterms - i.e. once Freeport back up and running again?
It's also looking increasingly likely that Russia will be turning down further (or off altogether) the gas supply to Europe. Russia now has less need for the west, achieving higher prices for products & the Ruble up 60% since the start of the conflict. There is no rush on their part to negotiate.
Iran, however, may be the wildcard in all this - not only with their own product hitting the market, but as a proxy for some Russian oil too.
If / when China invades Taiwan, then we're probably looking at WWIII.....banks, tech & fiat money might not be the best investment in those circumstances?
A world war will create a massive investment opportunity for those with the courage to buy during the market collapse that it will trigger. I think a war over Taiwan is unlikely - Biden is too weak to react any more than he did in Ukraine despite the Budapest agreement commitments.
Both TD & RBC reported a loss ... not good