If we stopped using fossil fuels, millions of people would die
If we stopped using "renewables", no one would even notice
This is reality. Anthropogenic Global Warming (“AGW”) is political science, devoid of any semblance of consistency with the laws of physics. The climate nutters who inhabit the halls of power in Washington, Whitehall and Ottawa keep promoting development of “renewables” and suppressing output of fossil fuels. In 2023, capital expenditures on solar will exceed capital outlays to increase oil output.
This short-sighted outcome will contribute to a deepening shortage of fossil fuels which comprise 80% of the world’s energy sources today. That shortage will manifest itself in higher prices for oil, gas and coal as the economic cycle returns to growth following an expected recession engineered by central banks to curb inflation. The coming recession will take the edge off inflation as global economic activity contracts and commodity prices fall in the face of falling demand, only to return with a vengeance when the cycle turns back to growth. No exploration and development company is going to increase capital expenditure to expand oil & gas output during a recession-driven period of low cash flows, and the natural decline rate in oil & gas fields will be felt in lower output. Demand growth will follow economic recovery and the shortage will become a force compelling higher prices.
Like lemmings headed for the cliff, left wing policy makers are driving the world economy to the brink of collapse with debt levels reaching unsustainable levels, sovereign and household debt at record levels, little evidence of any material easing of inflationary pressures (other than as a result of lower energy prices for the time being), and economic output demonstrating resilience despite the higher interest rates. Most Americans are finding it hard to make ends meet and living paycheck to paycheck. Credit card debt is at a record high and rates charged keep rising. Wages are lagging price inflation.
Central bank policies continue to set policy rates below the levels implied by the Taylor Rule and history has shown rates below the rate of inflation will fail to curb inflation which helps explain why rate increases to date have had a muted effect. Virtually all of the reductions in inflation to date can be traced directly to the 40% fall in world oil prices since their 2022 peak and the 75% drop in natural gas prices in the same interval. Slobbering over their bibs to claim success, politicians in Western democracies are eager to declare victory and prepare their campaigns for the next round of elections, coming in 2024 to United States and likely in Canada as well. This ostrich-like behaviour will run into a wall of reality before voters assemble to elect the next President in America or the next Canadian government, and the words “it is the economy, stupid” will once again ring loudly in headlines written by pundits trying to explain why Biden’s poll numbers are terrible and getting worse and Poilievre in Canada keeps gaining ground at the expense of the Trudeau Liberals.
Sooner or later, the laws of physics will take their toll on the nonsensical climate change theory the left has bet all of its chips on at the political roulette table. That charade will turn into Russian roulette for the left who I expect voters will run out of office on a rail in 2024 with a return to some speck of normalcy. Leftist nonsense like ESG, DEI and climate change fears will become footnotes in history books as writers chronicle the largest and most foolish mass mania in world history, making organized religion look almost sensible by comparison. The inevitable comparisons will contrast modern climate hysteria with the historical record of the Incas and Aztecs who thought sacrificing children would improve the weather. In both cases, the outcome is unfortunate for the victims of the manias - the children murdered in the case of the ancient Incas and Aztecs and the millions of people impoverished in developing economies by foolish climate policies when they so desperately need reliable and cost-efficient energy which can only be provided by fossil fuels.
Maybe common sense will return to the democratic electorate and alter the toxic course on which the left wing leaders of Western democracies are currently steering their respective nations. I hope so.
How can any rational person not agree with you?
Thanks for putting it so well.
The implications are wide, not just specific to the putative Climate Emergency, but to everything the obviously deluded govt. tell us.
If they are so incorrect on of the physics of carbon effects on climate, much less the lack of a specific "emergency", why can we rely on what else they tell us about "reality", much less what is important for increased prosperity and less suffering for those the politicians are supposed to be representing?
It's so slow that most are not aware of the changes and the source. Perhaps this winter in Europe may awaken a few more. Grid instability and cost are hidden by time and "global warming" fear mongering. The big savior has been LED lighting and more efficient electronic devices.