Handicapping the November election
Comparing what ordinary Americans consider important with what leftist organizations claim they consider important
Gallop polls have a long history of impartiality - they just report what people say. A February 2024 Gallop poll lists what Americans are conerned about. The top issues are immigation, a dysfunctional government, the economy, inflation and concerns about poverty, hunger and homelessness. By and large, the electorate could care less about the federal budget deficit, foreign policy or healthcare and pile of other secondary issues. Notice that “climate change” is not mentioned (nor should it be since CO2 is incapable of causing climate change and the leftist rhetoric claiming otherwise is petering out in the face of the laws of physics).1
It now seems virtually certain that the November election will be a reprise of the Trump-Biden contest in 2020 which, despite a lot of shenanigans, was won by Biden.
On the key issues, there is a clear choice for voters.
Immigration
Biden pretends he wants controls over immigration but his corporate donor want cheap labor and his first acts in office were a pile of executive orders dismantling effective Trump policies that reduced illegal immigration. It is a bit late in the game to try to persuade voters that Biden wants border control. Regardless of whether American will benefit from or be damaged by open borders, voters will prefer Trump by a wide margin.
Government
The U.S. government is dysfunctional and neither Trump nor Biden will do much to unify the country. The alignment of mainstream media with one party or the other without objective reporting exacerbatest he divide. While Americans are concerned, their voting choices are more likely to reflect the party they belong to and the election outcome will fall to independent voters who seem to be shifting towards Trump from Biden with many supporting Robert F. Kennedy who may take votes from either major party candidate. The outcome of this issue is too close to call.
Economy in general
The U.S. economy is remarkably resilient almost shaking off the effect of higher central bank policy rates and continuing to demonstrate high levels of employment and positive growth. Properly messaged, this could be a plus for Biden but so far he has been ineffective in promoting Bidenomics rather than embracing the reality that the economic growth has not benefited all Americans but rather has widened the gap between rich and poor with the fiscal imbalance and monetary policies harming more households than those that benefit. If the economic condition remains relatively strong through November, Biden will nonethless benefit and Trump cannot do much about it.
Inflation
The rubber really hits the road on the inflation front. Despite higher Fed policy rates, inflation remains high and voters are less concerned about the reported inflation rate than their ability to put food on the table and meet rent, mortgage or car payments. It is inarguable that Biden policies are not contributors to the inflation with government spending almost reckless and much of it squandered on pet projects that pretend CO2 causes climate change and subsidize well-heeled Americans to buy electric vehicles (EV’s) or send billions to Israel or Ukraine without addressing domestic issues of poverty, homelessness and related social issues like drug abuse and shoplifting. Trump’s success or failure in the election hinges in large part whether Biden can sell the story that inflation resulted from supply chain disruption, corporate greed and external factors like world commodity prices. That is a tough sell with debt now $34 trillion and a trillion dollar deficit likely this year.
So much for objective data on the concerns of ordinary Americans. Now consider what Microsoft Co-pilot says American’s are most concerned about:
The only issue in common with the Gallop poll is concerns about the economy. The balance of the Co-pilot list is leftist tripe, a manifestation of the built-in bias of Microsoft AI creators which diminishes the value of Microsoft’s AI platform and may trigger a reaction Microsoft won’t like if Trump wins in November. Microsoft, Google, New York Times, Washington Post, Apple, Disney and Netflix do no favors for the Democrats by relentlessly pushing the leftist narrative - they just piss off everyone not already committed to socialism with their toxic “woke” crap so eloquently exposed by Vivek Ramaswamy in his best seller “Woke, Inc.”
Equality. Americans long ago accepted gays as valued members of society and the pretense that most voters think this is a real issue is an absurd attempt to re-litigate a 1950’s election.
Abortion. The Supreme Court ruling that over turned Roe v Wade was a correct interpretation of the U.S. Constitution, not some partisan outcome, and the issue is more important to State elections than the federal election. Democrats think this is their salvation but Americans are divided about abortion and it is unlikely to shift anyone to change parties.
Climate Crisis. This is a non-issue made up entirely of leftist propaganda and Americans are finally waking up to the reality they have been had. It will cost Democrats more votes than it gains. This clip from Scientific Study published by Science Direct deflates the rhetoric:
Ukraine. Ukraine is an achilles heel for Biden. His son’s history of corruption with Ukraining energy outfit Burisma, allegations of his own corruption and the reality that Putin signalled his intention to invade Ukraine long before the war started and Biden did nothing to try and prevent it makes Biden look weak. Americans who can’t afford groceries won’t vote for more billions to be spent on Ukraine while they can’t afford to pay their bills.
Democracy. Democracy is alive and well in America and calling Trump a “threat to democracy” is not only a silly claim but also likely to encourage voters to support Trump and demonstrate to Biden that democracy works and they don’t want him in the Oval office for another term. Socialism is the only threat to democracy, and it is the Democrats who want to turn the U.S. into a socialist state by weaponizing the FBI, DOJ, and other three letter units of the administration to attack their political opponents which most Americans find objectionable.
The November election is too close to call at this point and both candidates for major parties are old men with quite a few stains on their copy books. If I had to make a bet today, I would bet on Trump.
Climatic consequences of the process of saturation of radiation absorption in gases - ScienceDirect
The AI bias is shocking. I don't use it much at all, but I was curious about some local tax legislation so I asked Gemini what it thought. The response was basically that the particular scenario I was interested in was subject to tax, whereas my read of the relevant legislation was that it was not mentioned at all, and therefore, IMHO, not subject to tax.
Biden's son long long history of corruption with Ukraine.
and
America's politicians long long history of corruption by Israel.
Biden has taken $4,346,264 from AIPAC and the pro-Israel lobby.
Let's get AIPAC out of the White House. https://t.co/lVlCMV6H6J