Did Government COVID responses substitute nonsense for science?

Surely we can do better.

We now have data from about 18 months of the COVID pandemic and those data can tell us whether the response by elected officials in Western democracies reflected objective science or political opportunism. I say the latter.

18 months comprises about 550 risk days. I use the term “risk days” because that makes more sense than bland percentages, as you will see later.

We know that 98% of those who are infected by COVID recover and that even in severe cases recovery or death occurs in less than 6 weeks. An infected person can only infect another person while they carry the virus. In Canada, after 18 months the data show that 95% of Canadians avoided infection altogether. They neither became ill not were capable of making anyone else ill. Of the 5% of Canadians who became infected, 98% recovered and about 2% succumbed.

Actual numbers rather than percentages will help make matters clear. Canada reports a total of 1,710,483 cases of COVID of which 1,656,453 recovered and 28,929 died. Those who recovered enjoy what is termed “natural immunity” and are less likely to be re-infected. In any event, the 1,710,483 cases at no more than 6 weeks of illness comprises 1,710,483 x 42 = 71,840,286 risk days compared to the risk days of the entire Canadian population of 550 x 38,067,903 (Canada’s population) = 20,937,346,750 risk days. The convergence of these data indicate that an infected person had a risk of infecting another person 71,840,286/20,937,346,750 = .0343 or 3% over 18 months and the risk that person will die is .0343 x .02 = .00069. Risk days per death are 20,937,346,750 divided by 28,929 = 723,749.

To combat that risk, our leaders have imposed lockdowns, vaccine passports, business closures, restrictions on travel, and a host of other draconian measures all in the name of “public health”. These data may confuse many but comparisons with other risks can provide perspective.

The average Canadian drives between 14,000 and 18,000 kilometers per year, depending on their Province of residence. There are about 8 million registered vehicles in Canada. Since all the miles driven are in a vehicle, the aggregate miles driven by Canadians must by less than 18,000 x 8 million = 144 billion. Traffic accidents kill about 5 persons per 100,000 people annually, or about 1 death for every 360,000,000 kilometers driven. People drive about 60 km/hr on average and 360 million kilometers takes 6 million hours or the equivalent of 250,000 days. While the risk days for driving comprises an amalgation of hours spread over longer periods (who drives 24 hours at a time) the risk days per death of 250,000 is about one third of the risk days for COVID. Put another way, driving is almost three times more dangerous than COVID per day of exposure.

Our leaders have expressed no interest in legislating an end to driving but occupy themselves with and endless series of “public health” measures that shred the Constitution, Charter of Rights and Privacy Act all in the name of “public health”.

You can sensibly conlcude that the risks of infection or a fatal outcome from COVID are low by any measure and the political response is well out of proportion to the risk. You can mitigate the risks of COVID by choosing to be vaccinated and limiting your contact with others, and you can limit your risk of a fatal car accident by driving less and driving defensively. You should be free to choose your own course and free from the tyrrany of an over zealous government trying to capitalize on the COVID pandemic for poltical gain at the expense of your personal freedoms. In the words of H.L. Mencken: “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule."

Vaccination has played (and will continue to play) an important role in limiting the morbidity and mortality from COVID, and “boosters” will make that role even more effective. A third dose reportedly reduces the already low risk by another ~92% and we should all embrace as booster availability increases. We should also be cautious about vaccinating 5 to 11 year olds and leave that decision to parents and their family physicians, as I have argued in an earlier article.

But we should also be clear that “vaccine passports” offer little value (as set out in my earlier article) and that this pandemic has reached the endemic stage calling for abandonment of government public health mandates in their entirety.

Florida’s experience is illustrative. Under Governor Ron De Santis, virtually all Florida public health mandates were removed and the state relied on the public’s common sense to choose to be vaccinated if desired and get on with their lives. There is some compelling evidence that is working - Florida has a nominal number of new COVID cases and virtually no deaths among its 21 million population, many of whom are senior citizens. It may well be that Florida now enjoys what is often termed “herd immunity”.

In Ontario, we continue to enforce “vaccine passports” and limits on the size of gatherings, pretending that vaccinated people either cannot or are less likely than unvaccinated persons to transmit COVID. Recent research published October 29, 2021 in The Lancet suggests otherwise. Quoting from the article:

I am hopeful our federal and Provincial leaders will spend more time with both public health and statistical experts to guide their policies and less time making “virtue signaling” announcements for political gain. I am not optimistic they will.