Should children be vaccinated for COVID?
A complex problem made worse by propaganda promoting vaccines
I watched an episode of “The Agenda” on TVO tonight where the guests Dr. Janine McCready, an infectious disease physician, and Sammantha Yammine, a neuroscientist, discussed the merits of having children as young as five years old vaccinated to protect against COVID. I think I can fairly say that both were almost evangelical in their praise of the safety and efficacy of vaccines and went out of their way to assure listeners adverse effects were rare. Both recommend all children be vaccinated not only for their own safety but also for the benefit of their communities.
Sound like a familiar refrain? Their opinions could have come from Justin Trudeau, Doug Ford, or any of a legion of so-called “experts” who enhort all Canadians to become vaccinated out of a sense of duty to the community if not for their own benefit. I had the distinct feeling I was hearing the sound of one hand clapping since no one on the episode offered an iota of information as to the actual risks being avoided by becoming vaccinated or the risks children will be exposed to if they are vaccinated. Parents are left with the strong recommendation to have their children vaccinated and almost no information on the trade off involved in such a decision.
Fortunately, 18 months into a pandemic in which vaccines were only available for about 10 months, there is no shortage of data to do a formal evaluation of risks and benefits. In my opinion, an actuary could do a better job of explaining the issue than an infectious disease physician or a neuroscientist, since the issue is more one of statistics and probabilities than one of medical competence.
After 18 months, of the 73 million children in the United States, fewer than 700 have died of COVID according to the Center for Disease Control. A vaccine for those under 12 is just now entering the market so those data are data for unvaccinated children with few exceptions.
If we look at the most recent data for the past week, we see that the mortality rate among children from COVID for the week ended September 19, 2021 is zero per 100,000. Had there been even 1 death per 10 million it would have been recorded as a 0.01 deaths per hundred thousands rate, but there was not.
In Canada, there are approximately 3 million children aged 5 to 11 according to Statistics Canada. Canada has provided COVID data for persons aged 19 or under but has not broken out those data to isolate ages 5 to 11. Notwithstanding, note that the total number of persons hospitalized for COVID in 18 months who were under 19 years of age was 1,735. It is reasonable to believe the 5 to 11 year old group comprises about one third of that number or less.
Vaccines have high initial efficacy but that level of protection wanes such that after about 6 months a booster shot is needed to maintain protection and in an 18 month period likely 3 booster shots. Each shot exposes the patient to 100% of the risk of vaccination, however low that risk may be.
So what is that risk?
Anaphylaxis
The medical community in North America downplays the risks of vaccinations and encourages their adoption. But the FDA review of the Pfizer vaccine found the rate of anaphylaxis, a life threatening adverse reaction, to be .46 cases per million doses. Since this is a two dose vaccine and over 18 months likely to require an initial round of two doses and three booster shots, the risk of anaphylaxis rises to 2.3 per million patients. Compare that to the risk of less than 1 death in 10 million patients over 18 months from COVID among those aged 5 to 11 and note the vaccination risk is 23 times greater.
Myocarditis and Perocarditis
The recorded cases of adverse vaccinations reactions causing Myocarditis and Perocarditis have been reviewed by the FDA for children aged 5 to 11. That review led to the following statement made on behalf of the FDA.
”In all of the scenarios that the FDA modeled, the agency estimated that Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine would more frequently prevent COVID-related cases in children than cause "excess myocarditis cases.
However, if cases of COVID-19 were to fall to the low levels last seen in June, the FDA predicted the U.S. might not see enough severe COVID-19 cases in children to outnumber the incidents of myocarditis or pericarditis.
At that level, the FDA said it was possible that the vaccine might lead to 21 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations and 58 excess hospitalizations for myocarditis, per million children vaccinated.
"The model results indicate that the benefits of the vaccine are highly dependent on the incidence of COVID-19," the FDA said.”
In Ontario, COVID cases now comprise about 400 a day and some 30% of those cases are fully vaccinated persons. This is an encouragingly low rate of infection. It is also a level so low that the benefits of vaccinating 5 to 11 year old children are more than likely outweighed by the risks of vaccination. I say “more than likely” since more data are needed to be definitive.
Conclusion
I think it is time for both politicians and health care professionals in Ontario to stop pretending every decision is a “public health” decision and that “vaccines” are the answer to ending the pandemic. Vaccines have played an important role in limiting morbidity and mortality and that benefit has pretty well run its course now that the pandemic is all but over now with almost 90% of Ontarians already fully vaccinated.
It is simply not clear that children aged 5 to 11 will have better health outcomes if vaccinated than if not. The vast majority of those children will never attract COVID. Of those that do, an overwhelming majority will recover fully. Compelling people to vaccinate their children is certain to expose them to the risk of vaccination (rather than a minor risk they might become infected) and that “vaccine” risk may well be higher than the risk of COVID, even if infected.
This is a decision that parents should make armed with all of the facts and free from incessant one-sided admonitions that they owe it to their children and to society to be vaccinated. The Province and public health officials role in that is to provide parents with objective information, not propaganda. I fear we are headed to a time when our governments mandate vaccination for children 5 to 11 or refuse their attendance at school. That is not only unwarranted by any science but also is an assault on the rights of parents to make medical choices for their children and oppressive to those who do not comply.
Good article. I have been reading in several pieces of information that those drug companies that collect the stats, Pfizer for example, do not count anything that occurs in the first 7 days after the vax, those are still considered unvaxed. Now I also understand that most issues if they are going to occur, do so within the first 7 days. Are you aware if this is a true fact, Michael? If it is, then they are purposely leaving out the largest amount of data that would absolutely change things.