I watched an episode of The Agenda with Steve Paikin where the panel discussed whether Ontario could become an Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturing “powerhouse”. The panel included Vic Fedeli, Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade; Dennis Darby, President and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters; Josipa Petrunic, CEO of Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation; JoAnna Kyriaizis, Director of Public Affairs for Clean Energy, Canada; and, Greig Mordue, Arcelormittal Chair in Advanced Manufacturing at McMaster University. These outstanding panel members were almost exuberant about the potential for Ontario and Canada to become a Global EV powerhouse. Only Professor Mordue offered a realistic view on the potential and the exorbitant costs to taxpayers of the “incentives” granted multinational car and battery companies to located facilities in Canada. The billions of cash and tax credit given profitable multinational companies to locate facilities in Canada is compelling evidence that without government paying the freight they would prefer to locate elsewhere.
Ms. Petrunic’s excitement about the “EV revolution” was palpable, with her argument for the EV industry success included a comment that the U.S. CAFE mandates for fleet fuel economy could only be met by having a high proportion of EV vehicles in their fleets, based on her application of the laws of physics to the inability of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to comply with the CAFE mandates. She might have taken a moment or two to apply the laws of physics to the specious claim that carbon dioxide (CO2) causes climate change, a physical impossibility well demonstrated by numerous scientific studies that are largely ignored by mainstream media and leftist governments who like to use “climate change” alarms to rally support for their socialist agendae.1
EV’s are great vehicles - fast, quiet, comfortable, and in many cases beautifully designed. If they were really going to be the vehicle of choice for future generations, they would not require incentives and subsidies from governments to attract buyers. But they do. They suffer from high costs, limited range and a lack of charging infrastructure, and a shortage of battery metals and copper that limit the automotive industry’s ability to manufacture them profitably. Both General Motors and Ford report losing billions on their EV programs and tens of thousands of losses on each vehicle.
Another useful application of the laws of physics demonstrates that EV’s do more damage roadways owing to their greater weight; put demands on the electricity grid that can only be satisfied by expanding the use of fossil fuel and nuclear generation (since the much touted Wind and Solar is costly, unreliable and incapable of making a meaningful contribution to reliable power supply at night, during winter - when solar panels are covered with snow in Canada- or on calm or cloudy days. Fortunately, Canada suffers no shortage of fossil fuels.
Batteries for EV’s are heavy and the idea that more batteries will be manufactured in Canada than are needed to supply EV assembly plants in Canada is a pipe dream. China is the largest EV market on the planet and shipping an EV battery from Canada to China would cost about $1,000 to $1,500. Shipping EV batteries to Europe would face a similar cost barrier. American vehicle assemblers will produce their own EV batteries in the U.S. domestic market rather than in Canada with few exceptions, since most vehicle assemblers struggle to earn a few thousand dollars profit per vehicle and the added $1,000 to $1,500 to ship a battery to the assembly plant would be prohibitive.
Canadian vehicle sales run about 1.7 million annually. Since 2019, a total of 232,000 EV’s were purchased by Canadian consumers who received a total of over $1 billion in government subsidies. Presumably, fewer Canadians would have bought an EV absent those subsidies.
Major automobile companies are now cutting back on their EV programs and returning to profitable ICE vehicles and hybrids. Both Ford and GM are now “balancing” their EV programs with profitable sales of ICE vehicles, and reducing output of key vehicles like the Ford “Lightning” EV pickup and the shelved Blazer EV SUV. Slowing demand for EV’s globally has led to layoffs.
Governments shoveled a pile of money to Stellantis to build an EV battery plant in Windor, Ontario. Stellantis already has an EV battery plant in France with capacity by 2030 expected to be 40 Gigawatt hours (GwH). A typical Tesla battery has a capacity of 100 KwH so the Stellantis plant in France should be able to provide batteries for 40 e12 divided by 100e3 = 400,000 EV’s. The Stellantis EV battery plant governments all but paid for to be built in Windsor is larger at 45 GwH, able to produce batteries for about 450,000 EV’s. Canada’s total car market is 1.7 million and it is unlikely Stellantis will enjoy a 28% market share so the plant will need to ship batteries across the border to produce the 2,500 jobs Stellantis claims the plant will create. Stellantis already plans an EV battery plant in Kokomo, Indiana which begins producing next year with capacity of 33 GwH and another in U.S. as part of the Starplus Energy Joint Venture with of similar size. Stellantis total North American vehicle sales run about 1.8 million a year and unless EV adoption approaches 100% of the Stellantis fleet and the company maintains share, the Windsor plant may never reach capacity output.
Stellantis received tax breaks expected total $15 billion to locate an EV battery plant in Windsor. That amounts to about $60 million for each job created at the proposed Windsor plant. Really? As an old time CEO of an automotive parts supplier (Automodular Corporation) those numbers just don’t add up in my books.
Minister Fedeli’s enthusiasm for the EV opportunity should be tempered with a touch of realism. EV’s will become a viable choice for consumers over time, but many consuemrs will prefer to stick with tried and true ICE vehicles which suffer few limitations in range or operating costs; are less prone to burst into flames which is a risk with a lithium iron battery in an EV; and, can be refueled in minutes practically everywhere. The belief that CO2 causes climate change will fade into history as a mass hysteria as the laws of physics overtake the political science that underlies the climate change narrative, and Ontario’s billions spent of EV battery plants are more likely to end up a white elephants than the foundation of a new, growing manufacturing sector.
Climatic consequences of the process of saturation of radiation absorption in gases (sciencedirectassets.com)
Saturation of the Infrared Absorption by Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
Dieter Shildknecht, Cornell University
The next step is making ICE vehicles unaffordable, easy enough to do. I’m currently in BC and gas is almost 50 cents a litre higher than when I left Ontario Monday. Of course the plants are a white elephant, hopefully the commitment was in Cdn$, easier to print their way out of it.
Perhaps the Libs figure the tough election ahead means raid the piggy back now and leave things in such bad shape that any forced reduction in gravy can be blamed nonstop on the cold and callous replacement govt. likely will work well, the average citizen unfortunately believes the non stop propaganda…
Honda in Aliston has billion $ investment plans … not sure what’s up with that . Hybrids ? Keep an eye out