Dave, at CAD$3.00 per gigajoule for gas and CAD$75 for oil ($CAD35 for NGL) I get cash flow north of CAD$800 million; CAD$530 after capex and ~CAD$300 after a CAD$0.80 dividend. I value the stock at about CAD$20 per share.
Wanted to thank you for sharing your insights to everyone for free. You are an incredible asset for small retail investors like me. Thank you for all you do. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Hello Michael= Queen's B.Comm 1969 (Hon's) grad here. Have enjoyed reading your many articles on various oil & gas companies. Have built a strong position in many that you have recommended, including BIR. I note that their management team has closely together for many years and that the CEO & his executive team takes the same amount of stock options & other perks, when granted by their Board. An interesting difference from many other companies.
If and when LNG starts flowing from the Kitimat area, that is a huge shot in the arm for BIR and others in the area. CR stands out as a big mover as smaller than BIR, I hold BIR, no where near as much as Michael Blair, but I like the Pres, Jeff T and no intention of selling as great potential even without the div.
Hi Michael, I added BIR today. I’m curious how your model values the company at todays lower commodity prices? Thanks for all your work.
Dave, at CAD$3.00 per gigajoule for gas and CAD$75 for oil ($CAD35 for NGL) I get cash flow north of CAD$800 million; CAD$530 after capex and ~CAD$300 after a CAD$0.80 dividend. I value the stock at about CAD$20 per share.
Hi Michael,
Wanted to thank you for sharing your insights to everyone for free. You are an incredible asset for small retail investors like me. Thank you for all you do. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Cheers!
Hello Michael= Queen's B.Comm 1969 (Hon's) grad here. Have enjoyed reading your many articles on various oil & gas companies. Have built a strong position in many that you have recommended, including BIR. I note that their management team has closely together for many years and that the CEO & his executive team takes the same amount of stock options & other perks, when granted by their Board. An interesting difference from many other companies.
Will they cut the dividend at lower nat gas prices?
Sure, if those prices go low enough. I see the dividend quite safe down to about CAD$3.00 per gigajoule.
Excellent write-up. I like how they are getting HH pricing on a large chunk of their production. Majorly long (for me) BIR.
If and when LNG starts flowing from the Kitimat area, that is a huge shot in the arm for BIR and others in the area. CR stands out as a big mover as smaller than BIR, I hold BIR, no where near as much as Michael Blair, but I like the Pres, Jeff T and no intention of selling as great potential even without the div.