Biden is a weak leader

Foreign policy lacks common sense

Europe and the United Kingdom have been struggling with nosebleed prices for oil and natural gas (although a warm winter has provided short term relief) which Western democracies blame on the war in Ukraine and the disruption to supply from that source. But the war is not the problem. American foreign policy and is a major contributor to Europe’s malaise and the lack of sensible policies from Paris, Berlin or Whitehall has not helped.

The concerted effort to impose sanctions and price caps on Russian oil and gas as punishment for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been disastrous for Europe and virtually inconsequential for Russia. Russian oil & gas still finds its way to market, but through shipments to India and China rather than to Europe. The beneficiaries of the sanctions are India and China who are able to purchase oil & gas below world prices even if higher than 2021 prices. The price of both oil & gas reflects self-inflicted shortages arising from “climate” policies that pretend CO2 causes global warming (it certainly does not). In the case of natural gas to Europe, the supply shortage got worse when the Nordstream pipeline suffered an explosion.

The Energy Information Administration estimates that Russian oil shipments in 2022 fell by 200,000 barrels a day to 7.8 million barrels a day. That 2.5% decline is a rounding error and the price Russia received was much higher than in 2021. S&P Global puts Russia’s 2022 oil production even higher and notes the price Russia has been receiving is well above Russia’s budgeted levels.

Even today, Russian oil production has seen litle impact from sanctions.

Russia has decided to act by cutting its oil output by 500,000 barrels a day, announced last night and reported by Bloomberg. That cut will deepen an already serious shortage, drive prices higher, and inflame the inflation central banks have been trying to curb. Biden has replaced policy with stupidity, and his European counterparts are demonstrating their own lack of sense.

The news is emerging that President Biden ordered the bombing of the Nordstream pipeline, reducing the flow of natural gas to Europe and exacerbating the shortage the have experienced. LNG exports from United States, Qatar and U.A.E. combined with a warm winter have eased the short term shortage of natural gas for this winter but do not address what will happen in next winter turns cold.

Biden’s policies have benefited China, the country the United States claims is its enemy; benefited India, a competitor in global markets; and, harmed North Americans who have suffered rising inflation in part driven by rising energy costs.

Biden’s foreign policy gaffes were exposed clearly by his handling of the Balloon China sent through Canada and across the United States, gathering intelligence and transmitting it back to China. Biden waited until the spy mission had been completed and China had all the information the balloon was capable of discovering before Biden allowed the air force to shoot it down, with Biden claiming some sort of victory. Talk about closing the barn door after the horse has gone.

The Ukraine war itself was a foreign policy failure. Despite President Clinton signing the Budapest Agreement committing to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine, United States did nothing to prevent the invasion and since it has lingered for almost a year, done little but send money and equipment. Ukraine is suffering devastation and thousands of lives lost while Biden pretends the United States is helping. The Commander in Chief of the world’s most formidable fighting force is afraid to fight. Ukraine suffers the consequences.

Trudeau is no better. What is left of Canada’s tiny military (I served in the RCAF for a decade) has little ability to help Ukraine. Canada sending four obsolete tanks which may not even be serviceable is typical of our Prime Minister. A photo op, a stern sounding speech by Minister Anand, and four rusty old tanks get shipped to Ukraine where their real value is scrap metal. By 2019, Canada had all but given up trying to find a home for ageing tanks, but the opportunity to fob them off on Ukraine was too good to pass up.

I have some first hand experience with Canada’s obsolete weaponry. In my 1,000 plus hours flying the CF-101 Voodoo in the 1970’s, I suffered 10 engine failures. At least one of the T-33’s I used to fly adorns a pedestal, where it has some value, since it was well past its best before date when I was flying it. Many Canadian airmen lost their lives as a result of poor equipment, with the official cause of the fatal accidents typically recorded as “pilot error”. Quite a few of them were my friends.

War is a serious business and democracy will not last unless it is defended. Weak leadership has consequences. The Ukraine war is showing no signs of ending, world economies are suffering from rampant inflation which in my opinion will get worse before it gets better, and consumers are stuck with high interest rates, a crumbling real estate market, and food and fuel prices near levels they cannot afford.

It is fascinating that American, Canadian and European foreign policy ostensibly aimed at putting pressure on Russia and China have had virtually no impact on Russia and seen China enjoy inflation rates less than half of those punishing the West.

Sensible minds can correct foreign policy errors in judgment but there is no cure for stupidity.