Will Trump's conviction cost him the election?

Well, it won't help much - or will it?

The 2020 election wasn’t really all that close. Biden-Harris won 306 electoral college votes versus 232 for Trump-Pence. The map shows the divide in American politics with Democrat’s support concentrated on the West Coast and North East.

Seven so-called “battleground” states tell the story.
Biden won Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which gave him a total of 77 electoral college votes and he won by 74 votes.

Fast forward to the coming November 2024 election. Pollsters are having a field day and the race seems likely to be closer. Trump leads Biden in all “battleground” states including North Carolina which Trump held in 2020 but which is always a close call.

Here is a summary as of June 1, 2024:

Arizona (11 seats) - Trump ahead 4.6 percentage points
Nevada (6 seats) - Trump ahead 5.7
Georgia (16 seats) - Trump ahead 5.4
North Carolina (16 seats) - Trump ahead 6.4
Pennsylvania (19 seats) - Trump ahead 1.9
Michigan (15 seats) - Trump ahead 0.6
Wisconsin (10 seats) - Trump ahead 1.4

If Trump wins all seven of the foregoing states, he will retake the White House. That is a bit wishful despite his lead. Democrats will make serious efforts to reverse the current showing in the polls, and there is some tilting towards Biden following Trump’s conviction on what appear to be “Trumped-up” charges in New York. A fast appeal that reverses the conviction would help Trump but seems unlikely in the few months that remain before November 5th.

Given the size of his current lead, I think Trump will hold North Carolina and has a better than even chance of winning Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia which would add 33 electoral college votes to his 2020 showing of 232 and decrease Biden’s outcome by a similar amount, bringing the race to 265 Trump versus 273 Biden with no change to the Biden victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which Biden won in 2020 and are included in the 273 vote calculation.

For Trump to win, he needs to win one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin - not all three. Democrats will pour resources into Pennsylvania where Trump has a 1.9 percentage point edge right now and possibly take their chances in Michigan where it seems to be a dead heat. Based on the wonderful strategies for war developed by the famous strategist Basel H. Liddell-Hart, I think Trump should attack where the enemy is less likely to defend and put his efforts into Wisconsin and Michigan. .

An all out effort to win Wisconsin is - in my opinion - a winning strategy since Trump needs only one of the three states I mentioned (if you buy the analysis that reduces the contest to those three states) and winning is best realized by focus and concentration, not a scattergun effort to win everything. A secondary attack on the voters of Michigan is a sensible hedge. Trying to win all three is a dangerous route unless the Trump campaign benefits from much greater resources. At present, both campaigns have approximately equal resources (according to Microsoft Copilot) and resource allocation is critical to success.

I am always cautious about data provided by Microsoft Copilot since Microsoft is as left wing as CNN and MSNBC and the data may be unreliable. Recent reports that the Trump campaign raised over $200 million since his conviction last week suggests Trump may even have an advantage, but smart strategists don’t count on winning solely because they think they have more ammunition. Focus and concentration of efforts often yields better outcomes. Snipers are more effective than machine guns in many battles.

Trump is odds-on to win. Democrats can wail and gnash their teeth for the next five months but it won’t help them. Biden is as corrupt as his son Hunter, and Trump is not bound by the DOJ’s decision not to prosecute him for the felony documents issue which concluded he was too old and feeble to stand trial despite clear evidence he was guilty of the crime.