Will NetZero save Humanity?
Or does it threaten all plant life on Earth?
Since 1990, global emissions have continued to rise according to data published by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), reaching over 46 Gigatons in 2015.
In an atmosphere with a mass of 5.146e18 Kilograms, the 2015 emission comprised over 9 ppm of atmosphere. Expressing each year’s emissions as parts per million of Earth’s atmosphere by mass, the data show a total of more than 45 parts per million have been pumped into the atmosphere in the 25 year period shown. On average emissions amounted to 7.4 parts per million of atmosphere each year in the 25 year period.
In 1990, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were 353 parts per million (by volume) according to data collected at Mauna Loa observatory and in 2015 the atmospheric CO2 concentration had risen to 398.93 parts per million (by volume), an increase of 1.84 parts per million per year on average.
Major administrations of many global countries including Canada, the United States, and many of the countries of Europe have either committed to or are promoting “Net Zero” as the path to save humanity from the calamity they believe emissions are causing. No one has ever proven that CO2 emissions can or will cause any harm but there is no doubt that world leaders believe emissions cause global warming and are determined to prevent that harm by taking drastic actions to curtail emissions, embracing the concept of Net Zero emissions as Earth’s salvation.
None of them seem to have considered what the likely outcome will be if they succeed in their zeal to achieve Net Zero emissions.
With current emission levels averaging 7.4 parts per million by mass which is 4.9 ppm vy volume (divide by 1.52 to convert ppm by mass to ppm by volume since 1 mole of CO2 has 1.52 the mass of one mole of atmosphere) but atmospheric CO2 levels rising only 1.84 parts per million by volume, it is plain and obvious that Net Zero will see atmospheric CO2 levels begin to fall and if the ratios persist fall by an average of 3.1 parts per million by volume every year that Net Zero prevails. I make no claim to any expertise other than subtraction for this estimate (4.9 - 1.8 = 3.1).
There seems to be general agreement among scientists that a minimum of 150 parts per million of atmospheric CO2 is necessary to support plant life, since most grade schoolers already know that plants consume CO2 in a process called photosynthesis and produce oxygen in the process.
Current measured atmospheric CO2 levels are approximately 411 parts per million, again measured at Mauna Loa. If Net Zero were realized and persisted for 85 years, atmospheric CO2 levels might fall below 150 parts per million (411 less (85 x 3.1) = 148) and plant life on Earth would fail. Without plants and photosynthesis, human life would also fail.
There is considerable doubt as to whether CO2 can or will cause adverse climate change but there can be no doubt that a CO2 level of 148 parts per million will see humanity become extinct.
I have studied literally thousands of so-called “scientific” papers arguing that CO2 causes global warming and an almost equal number (largely the work of physicists rather than those devoid of any understanding of the laws of physics) who argue that Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is nonsense, but I have yet to find a single study that suggests Earth can survive without plant life.
For my money, physical chemist Kiminori Itoh who has written four books on climate change captured the essence of AGW theory with the words:
In a somewhat more dramatic statement, Harvard physicist Lubos Motl summed up a recent IPCC report:
There have been many periods of mass hysteria in history. Incas and Aztecs sacrificed children believing it would improve the weather. European Kings ordered knights on crusades to convert Saracens to Christianity thinking they were doing God’s work. The entire population of Holland in the early 1600’s believed tulips were so valuable they would pay as much as a year’s wages for a single tulip bulb.
With its origins in the Club of Rome and its objective to create a socialist world government, AGW has more of the elements of a mania or religion than it has of scientific advance, and the mania is still growing. It will not have a happy ending.