Putin likely to use tactical nuclear weapons
No one can reasonably believe this will lead to all out nuclear war
Following the use of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the only nuclear weapons ever fired in anger, the world order was persuaded that mutually assured destruction (MAD) would prevent a nuclear war. History provides no clue as to why the Americans dropped two atom bombs on Japan when Japan was on the verge of surrender or why one was not enough to prove the point. But many historians (me included) think the U.S. wanted to demonstrate its power to become leader of a new world order and a few hundred thousand non-American casualties seemed a small price to pay for world power.
The Cold War followed and the major nuclear capable countries kept MAD in mind in their geopolitical decisions, avoiding the use of nuclear weapons in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Kosovo, Syria Afghanistan, Laos and Cambodia. But despite the general acceptance of MAD nuclear powers United States and Russia kept developing tactical nuclear weapons. Why? I will argue because they intended to use them.
If you are persuaded that use of nuclear weapons is enough of a stand off to prevent an all-out nuclear war what is the point of developing tactical nuclear weapons at all? That only makes sense if you believe their use can be differentiated from the use of strategic nuclear weapons and will not result in nuclear Armageddon. Both Russia and United States must believe that or they would not have squandered billions developing weapons that were redundant to an all-out nuclear war but useful only in tactical situations. Canada was among those countries that for a period of time had tactical nuclear weapons in its arsenal - Bomarc Missiles and AIR-2A air-to-air rockets with payloads measured in kilotons rather than megatons. I flew CF-101 Voodoos armed with tactical nuclear weapons while Canada’s Minister of National Defense publicly claimed Canada didn’t have nuclear weapons. Political leaders lying to Canadians has since become the norm, particularly now under Justin Trudeau who is hard to catch in a truth.
Putin has made it clear he will pursue his Ukraine ambitions even if he deems tactical nuclear weapons necessary to win. Take him at his word. With weak leaders in NATO countries and in particular with Biden leading America, the world’s response to Putin’s threat of tactical nuclear weapons is little more than bluster. From Russia’s point of view, there is no downside to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. They will kill mostly enemy combatants and enemy civilians, they will terrorize Ukranians possibly into submission, and neither NATO nor anyone else will do anything but scream blue murder. Russia is already enduring sanctions as severe as Western democracies were able to concoct and that has done little but improve Russia’s balance of payments as the sanctions helped drive up fossil fuel prices and Russia’s economy benefited rather than being crippled.
Those sanctions have backfired. They have crippled the economies of Europe and the United Kingdom who depend on Russian oil & gas curbed by sanctions, and other sanctions limiting food exports from Ukraine who in many ways was Europe’s breadbasket. Institutional stupidity is rampant in Western democracies. Climate policies created a massive global shortage of energy despite the reality that CO2 levels are immaterial to climate. The “science” behind this charade is political science, not physics, egged on by the United Nations and the World Economic Forum (WEF) who see the climate alarm as a rallying cry for a “new world order” led by socialists like Justin Trudeau and Klaus Schwab. UN officials admit it is specious.
Canada’s Liberal Party has been on board with the climate scam since the outset, seeing it as a way to bring about “justice and equality in the world”.
When did “justice and equality in the world” become Canada’s objective. What is just about taking money from those who have earned it and giving to those who have not? Where has there ever been a system of government that resulted in “equality”? Communism attempted it and resulted in millions of corpses and greater disparity between rich and poor than what had preceded it. The late Vilifredo Pareto, an Italian sociologist, observed that every society on Earth had unequal distribution of income largely because 20% of the people in every society produce 80% of the wealth, and of that 20% a small number produce most of the 80%. What he found was that in every walk of life, every sport, every human activity, the greatest achievements are the work of a number of people equal to the square root of the population involved. You could give tennis lessons to everyone on Earth but still find that a Roger Federer would rise to the top.
Misguided policies by Western democracies incited Putin to invade Ukraine. Inviting Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia into NATO was seen as a threat by the majority of not only Russians but also Ukranians, understandably so. Had Russia invited Mexico and Canada into a strategic alliance, been accepted and built military bases and missile silos in those countries, United States would have seen it as a threat.
In summary, Putin is now fighting for his political life and possibly his own life and is desperate since Ukraine has succeeded in repelling his invasion so far. Tactical nuclear weapons can tilt the balance and I see no reason he will not use them.
If he does, their use will roil financial markets. Be prepeared. A market over reaction may create the best buying opportunity in a generation.