Presidential candidates for this November duck the real issues in favor of ideological talking points
The real issues are likely to determine the outcome
Democracies are popularity contests. Candidates create campaigns to garner the most votes, pandering to the stereotypes of the two major parties and often blind to the issues that concern the electorate. When they see polling data, they change their rhetoric but rarely change their policy preferences. Most elections become a charade.
This November’s presidential election is important not only for America but also for world stability. If the U.S. economy tanks, the world economy will follow. Before discussing the risks, it is useful to list the issues concerning voters surfaced in a Pew Research poll.
The American economy has been surprisingly resilient but remains vulnerable. 73% of Americans think strengthening the economy is the key issue. Wars in Ukraine and conflict in the mid-east has made concerns over terrorism rise to second place although little terrorism exists in North America. A large majority of Americans want politics to be less influenced by money. Health care and education are always concerns. Social security funding is top of mind for those approaching or already in retirement. Illegal drugs and and the fiscal deficit are concerns for half the voters.
Issues like race, climate change, funding the military and poverty as not major concerns. Of course, every voter is different and their votes may be swayed by minor issues. Stereotypes aren’t useful.
The November election will likely be won by the candidate who has the most practical policies for the top few issues and does not water down his campaign by trying to be all things to all people or run on issues that cannot be resolved. Ideologues will vote along party lines regardless, so a successful campaign will talk to undecided voters.
In my opinion, the election will turn on a few issues, with some marked differences among candidates.
Here is my handicapping of the candidates on these issues:
Economy
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the best policy for strengthening the economy in terms of crumbling infrastructure while Trump’s emphasis on expanding U.S. energy output will have the most impact. Both Biden and Kennedy buy into the climate change scam and this will hurt them at the polls. Bidenomics isn’t working and trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear will hurt Biden.
Advantage Trump.
Impact of lobbying and political action committees
Biden is getting hundreds of millions of donations from World Economic Forum elites who benefit from leftist policies. It is not a good look when ordinary Americans can’t make ends meet. Trump’s donations are less since he is embroiled in many legal issues and major donors are staying away, but he would be no better than Biden if he could raise the money. Kennedy promotes candidate independence and calls the two-party system “rigged”
Advantage Kennedy
Education
Marxist teacher’s unions, socialists in academia and gender ideology and DEI promotion in public schools will turn voters towards Trump or Kennedy and away from Biden. Kennedy has the more practical approach including his emphasis on the value of skilled trades rather than university degrees for many people.
Advantage Kennedy
Social Security
No candidate has a viable plan to make social security economically sustainable. Higher retirement age and higher social security taxes are needed but unlikely to be enough to balance the books as the aging population grows. All candidates are afraid of this issue.
No one has the advantage
Crime
Biden’s “johnny come lately” emphasis on reducing crime lacks credibility and his attempts to restrict gun ownership have backfired on every politician embracing this idea. Both Trump and Kennedy have sensible policies. Kennedy’s approach will appeal to voters dissatisfied with Biden while Trump’s is preaching to the choir.
Advantage Kennedy
Immigration
This issue is on the ballot in every state and will be a major factor in determing the outcome in November. While Kennedy’s policy has more meat to it and makes sense, Trump has the edge with demonstrated success during his period as President to contrast with Biden’s failure.
Advantage Trump
Since less than half of Americans think climate change is a serious issue I have not put it on the list of important issues, but I believe promoting aphysical nonsense that claims CO2 causes climate change will simply backfire on those who try to benefit from that alarmist rant. Trump is the only candidate with the courage to call the climate change rhetoric a hoax (which it is) and he will benefit to the extent it matters to voters, although the climate nutters will still vote for Biden or Kennedy since they have an almost religious belief in this inane theory.
CONCLUSION
If able to run, Trump is the likely winner. But Biden is likely to be replaced as the Democratic candidate before the election and the choice of a replacement is key. If it is Harris, Democrats will suffer a landslide loss. Kennedy is unlikely to win but will turn in a good showing with most of his voters defectors from Biden although a measurable number will be defectors from the GOP.
Middle East not a conflict, it is the illegal occupation of palestine since 1948 Nakba that is causing all the bloodbath in the region.
Arabs are not in war with each other.
Not surprisingly the money influence in politic is #3 as 3/4 of politicians received money from aipac. Biden himself has taken $4,346,264 from aipac and the pro-israel lobby, resulting in hundreds of billions going to israel for no benefit to American.