Is Biden too old to run in 2024?
Or is he just a terrible choice?
Biden is eighty, and seems to still have a grasp of reality now and then. Claims that he is “losing it” are premature. His frequent “gaffes” and occasional stumbles through speaking engagements are more a reflection of a lack of preparation, a penchant for making up “personal experiences” that never happened - a characteristic he has displayed for decades - and a poor record of having anything useful to say not prepaerd for him and displayed on a teleprompter. He is still sane, and if re-elected in 2024 he will look much like he does today - inept, incapable of making serious foreign affairs decisions, driven by his party elite as their “puppet”, and a long way from a true leader. But his age is not a serious problem despite polls clamoring for him to stand aside in favor of a younger candidate.
The real risks in the passage of time as it affects Biden’s next four years in the White House are simple actuarial realities. At 81 in 2024, Biden will have a 0.07213 risk of dying from normal end of life causes, add 0.07961 in 2025; add .088578 in 2026; and, add 0.098388 in 2027. The odds of Biden dying in office are a cumulative one in three assuming his health is normal.
Dementia remains a risk. At 80, one man in 16 gets dementia and at 85 years of age one in three. The risk is higher for people with heart disease. Biden already shows early signs of cognitive decay.
Biden has Atrial Fibrillation (as I do) which is a risk factor. Afib, as doctors call it, is also a contributor to premature death from stroke - about five times the risk of people not suffering from Afib. About 5% of people with Afib succumb to stroke each year, with the percentage growing over time. In a four year term, Biden as about a 20-25% risk of stroke which would at a minimum incapacitate him. Stress exacerbates Afib risks putting Biden at the higher end of the risk profile given the stress of his job.
Review the bidding. Elect Joe Biden in 2024 and expect an event will end his Presidency about half the time:
Risk of death from normal factors - 33%
Risk of dementia - 33%
Risk of a stroke or sudden cardiac death triggered by Afib - 25%
These are separate and independent risks. During another term, there is a combined 86% risk Biden will be unable to complete the term. Getting old is not for pussies.
Democrats supporting Biden are betting on the odds-off chances he will win, survive and continue to a popular and in their views a capable leader. Seems unlikely, regardless of which side of the aisle your politics reside. His running mate is a key choice and if it is Kamala Harris, voters are choosing her as much as Biden and she would be (in my opinion) a weak choice and is unpopular with votes, even Democrats.
Trump is old too, and faces similar if lower risks. A Biden-Trump cage fight for election will have no winners. Both parties need to field younger, capable candidates or expect four years of unpredicatable policies, in-fighting and turmoil in the White House.
In my opinion, leftist policies are damaging America by strangling necessary fossil fuel production on the pretense that CO2 causes climate change; fueling massive shortages of affordable housing made worse by ineffective planning for immigration; creating crime-ridden cities where felons get a free pass; allowing the opiod crisis to spin out of control; and, saddling the economy with inflationary spending and debt. Biden is the poster boy for those policies and is just a poor choice as I see it.
The 2024 election is upon us before we know it. Place your bets.
He is too old and is a terrible choice for all the reasons you mention. Trump is too old as well. Fresh blood is needed!
Trump will run the country from jail in 2024, until he is pardoned.