Handicapping the November election is a challenge
The grip of socialism on America is tightening and frightening
Much like the last American election, it is hard to imagine two more unlikely candidates. Kamala Harris, incapable of speaking in complete sentences and famous for incomprehensible word salads whenever asked a question about “policy”; and Donald Trump, a New York billionaire vilified by mainstream media and so controversial he is already a target for assassination, surviving two failed attempts. You can’t make this shit up.
With an electoral college system, United States presidents come to power based on the outcome of a handful of so-called “battleground” states since in the hopelessly divided country you could run a cow for office in California or a horse for office in Texas and both would be elected if the cow ran on the Democrat ticket and the horse as a GOP candidate. The “battleground” states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada. It is almost impossible (but not in fact impossible) for either Trump or Harris to win the White House without winning Pennsylvania whose 20 electoral college seats often determine who wins.
Here’s the current state of play:
Arizona - 11 electoral college seats - Trump ahead 47.5% to 47%
Florida - 29 electoral college seats - Trump ahead 49.6% to 45.5%
Georgia - 16 electoral college seats - Trump ahead 48.1% to 46.9%
North Carolina - 15 electoral college seats - Trump ahead 47.5% to 47.3%
TOTAL - 71 electoral college seats
Pennsylvania - 20 electoral college seats - Harris ahead 48.2% to 46.8%
Michigan - 16 electoral college seats - Harris ahead 48.6% to 45.9%
Wisconsin - 10 electoral college seats - Harris ahead 48.4% to 46.7%
Nevada - 6 electoral college seats - Harris 47.3% to 46.7%
TOTAL - 52 electoral college seats
Note that Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada are so close the gap between the two candidates lies within the margin of error of the polls which is about 2 percentage points.
If the rest of the country landed along historical party lines, the result of the splits above is a Trump win with a 274 to 264 majority in the electoral college. If Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, he prevails. If Trump loses Florida but wins Pennsylvania, he wins. If he loses either but does not win Pennsylvania he is a dead duck. You can handicap these races many other ways, but it should be clear that the rubber hits the road in Pennsylvania.
To try to win Pennsylvania, Harris has come to Jesus and now says “fracking” (which she has in the past vilified as a threat to the planet and claimed she would “ban fracking” if in power) is something she now supports. Pennsylvania is a major shale oil producer and “fracking” employs some 800,000 people in that State. Harris seems to have persuaded enough voters she no longer plans to “ban fracking” to carry a majority in recent polls, but the November 5, 2024 election is the only poll that counts and it is likely that many people who make a living from the Pennsylvania shale industry doubt she is genuine in her recent conversion. Harris says she confirmed she was in support of “fracking” on the 2020 debate stage - an outright lie. The best she can say is that she didn’t double cross Joe Biden when he, not she, said he would not ban fracking and she kept her mouth shut on the issue.
Real Clear Politics, which doesn’t list Florida as a “battleground” state, finds the race a tie with all of the battleground states poll results in the margin of error but tending towards a conclusion that Harris has Michigan pretty well sewn up and Trump has Georgia and Arizona in the bag. No matter how you spin the statistics, the others on this list are just too close to call.
Keep in mind that when the actual votes are counted, Republicans including Trump seem to do better than the polling results according to Pew Research.
What never ceases to surprise me is the stranglehold socialism (and I make no bones about it, the Democrats are socialists and some even Communists) have over half the population in a country whose success historically can be traced to free-market capitalism. I guess the allure of getting something for nothing is just too hard to resist for younger Americans who have been indoctrinated into socialist thinking by the socialist teachers’ union members in primary education and the preponderance of socialists in post-secondary universities and colleges. If it ultimately succeeds and American becomes a socialist country, it will be only a matter of decades before it loses its economic and military leadership in the world and is relegated to another chaotic mess like the United Kingdom, Germany and France are today.
I find it laughable that the only thing that seems to stand between the status quo and that terrifying outcome is Donald Trump, a far from perfect person but one tough enough to “drain the swamp” in Washington and actually “Make America Great Again”. Yet like lemmings rushing to fall over the cliff, millions of Americans egged on by mainstream media and the billionaire Democrat donor class are “all in” on electing a socialist government which won’t end well for any of them. Go figure?
Call me a cynic, but I prefer realist. The deep state wins, its easy to promise lots and people who have little are happy with a tiny bit more.
Millions being let in and registered to vote, these votes will show up where needed, the computers will make sure of that, why do you thing voting machines are being used? You say its pretty close, maybe 10-20k votes in some states. Voting computers can be accessed and no chance of being caught, why wouldnt the people in power keep themselves in power, no different than Venezuela, just a little more sophisticated..
Well put Mr Blair. Unfortunately history has a way of repeating itself. I have family and friends in the US and most of them prefer the Republicans but wish Trump would tone down the rhetoric and just talk about what he would do to make their lives better. Surprisingly my military family and friends are not interested in foreign wars that don't directly involve the USA. They are very very proud to have served or the people who have served but they see themselves more as pawns than warriors in a lot of the adventures of the last few decades.
History shows repeatedly that socialist values rise when we have good economies created by the wealth of free enterprise which almost always ends when the socialist have wiped out the benefits and some type of war or civil unrest resets the balance. Sad but that's us humans.
Keep up the great commentary!