Did United States blow up the Nordstream pipeline?
The evidence points to Biden with collateral damage to Europe and NATO
A few weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Biden crowed that if Russia invaded Ukraine the United States would take out the Nordstream pipeline that ships natural gas to Europe. That threat was widely reported in February 2022 when it was made.
Biden’s threat was a weak attempt to prevent the invasion by threatening to cut off the flow of natural gas revenue from Europe (who depended on Russian oil & gas) primarily shipped by the Nordstream pipeline systems.
Russia did invade Ukraine and in September 2022 the Nordstream pipeline was blown up by high explosives. One result was a dramatic rise in the cost of natural gas in Europe, bringing United Kingdom and several European economies to the brink of collapse, save solely by a combination of LNG imports from the Middle East and United States and a warm winter. Russia suffered little loss from the pipeline destruction finding other markets for both its oil and its natural gas in both India and China. The Biden threat was a grade school bully tactic that did nothing to harm Russia but harmed America’s allies in Europe.
The data show that Russia’s oil & gas revenue has been resilient despite sanctions, barely changing in the first six months following the Ukraine invasion.
More recent data show Russian oil & gas revenues fell in January 2023. Biden would like credit for the decline. A better explanation is that world oil prices have fallen from well over $100 a barrel to about $80 now, and natural gas prices have fallen as well. A warm winter in Europe and LNG imports avoided an energy price calamity for the time being, but there is no evidence of an increased supply of oil or natural gas taking place on a global basis, and the energy calamity may have just been kicked down the road by a year.
Russian oil & gas is important to world market stability since Russia accounts for 14% of world crude oil production and 17% of global natural gas output.
Successful curtailment of Russian oil & gas output will result in an even more serious shortage of fossil fuels and further weaken European economies. India and China will be spared owing to their construction of coal fired power generation facilities and recognition that the “climate change” rhetoric is a scam. They will keep buying oil & gas from Russia while the West watches as their own economies suffer from shortages which will compel higher inflation despite higher interest rates until central banks bring Western economies to the brink of collapse.
Pullitzer Prize Winning journalist Seymour Hersh (who exposed the Mai Lei massacre in Viet Nam and the abuses of prisoners at Abu Graib in his earlier career with the New York Times) reported that it was in fact United States that detonated the C4 explosives that destroyed 50 meters of the Nordstream pipelines. Despite gleeful statements to the effect that Washington was pleased the Nordstream pipeline was taken out of service, Biden denies it was United States behind the attack on the pipeline and claims Russia blew up its own pipeline. It is hard to imagine a more absurd claim.
Hersh no longer writes for New York Times but published directly on Substack. He has said NYT is now too ideological and lacks objectivity preferring to promote left wing ideology. You don’t need to read too many NYT articles to conclude Hersh is right about that conclusion. Hersh was interviewed regarding his claim United States blew up the Nordstream pipeline. His interview is on YouTube at this link.
It is difficult to believe Biden’s decision to destroy the Nordstream pipeline was motivated by stupidity not because Biden isn’t that stupid, but because he has intelligent advisors supporting him. A more reasonable expectation is that the attack on the pipeline is part of an effort to make Europe more dependent on United States not only for defense but also for energy supply. That will put Biden between a rock and hard place since expansion of fossil fuel production will be needed to keep Europe’s economy above water but will conflict with the “climate change” rhetoric Biden has been peddling since his election.
In my opinion, this does not end well. Despite LNG from North America, Europe will suffer a serious shortage of energy next winter. Inflation in Europe is already virtually out of control despite some near term abatement as oil & gas prices softened in recent months. U.K. inflation is north of 10% nonetheless.
German inflation is less at 8.7% but energy inflation is 24.4.% and food inflation is 20.7%.
In Western democracies, the electorate has the final say over who controls the reins of power and with households forced to choose between food and home heating, forced to use up their savings to get by, and watching as housing prices remain beyond the range of affordability for their children, voters will likely toss out the current leaders at the first opportunity. In the meantime, things will get worse before they get better.
The one European nation that will benefit from this chaos is Norway, a partner with United States in the pipeline attack according to Hersh. Norway’s exports of oil & gas to Europe have risen as Russia’s have fallen, and Norway is now Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas. Unlike Canada, Norway has embraced its oil & gas industry and expanded its output for the benefit of Norwegians. Trudeau can claim there is no business case for LNG from Canada, but Norway suffers no such delusion. Norway develops and exports virtually all of its oil production and has increased its output about 25% since 2019. Norway is a striking example of why government policy matters, with its population enjoying the benefits of government programs paid for from oil & gas royalties while Canadians see Ottawa curtailing that source of revenue, borrowing recklessly and spending like a drunken sailor.
The chickens will come home to roost in the 2024 winter, just in time to remind American voters what a disaster Biden has been at home and abroad and likely in time for Canadians to wake up the disgraceful record they have endured under Justin Trudeau. I can’t wait.
Will the Russians retaliate ? And if so, how ?