Are all Canadian investing experts really "expert"?
The evidence suggests otherwise
The website “Dividend Earner” ranks the top Canadian “analysts” in stock-picking. Here is a list of the top 18 in this elite ranking. (Dave Burrows, John Zechner and Jaime Carrasco are all members of Osler Bluff Ski Club, as I am. All three are top-notch money managers as well as “stock pickers” and I consider them all as friends). Energy guru Eric Nuttall ranks 34th, largely because he limits his investments to energy stocks and the past year has not been stellar in that space. Norman Levine has retired from a terrific career in the investment industry.
The bottom of the list comprises “experts” with a less impressive record. Here are the ten lowest on the list.
If you need an advisor to guide or manage your investments, it matters who you choose. It is also clear that not all Canadian “analysts” have robust insight into the companies they suggest will benefit investors. But I am confident they all charge about the same fees for providing their advice and none of them are in any danger of missing a mortgage payment or having to drive a used car, I suspect.
The lowest ranked analyst, Brooke Thackray, relies on the crystal ball of “technical analysis” and demonstrates that Bollinger bands, moving averages, “double tops”, “double bottoms”, etc. are unreliable predictors of corporate performance or stock price. But he is smart enough to avoid putting his own money at risk, owning none of the six “picks” he suggested.
What separates the best outcomes from the worst is detailed and objective fundamental analysis of the companies suggested to investors. Absent that analysis the “experts” are shooting in the dark. If you are about to hire an advisor or entrust your money to a manager, it makes sense to interview them and ascertain whether they have a strong fundamental understanding of the companies they choose for their managed portfolios. The better ones will likely have formal education in securities valuation, either a CFA, CPA, CBV or similar certification. The rest are mostly charlatans who can spout a good line but are bereft of valuable insights.
Very interesting. I follow Nuttall...because he's everywhere and puts a fairly cohesive macro strategy together for investing. One that largely agrees with my own. Confirmation bias, probably. That said my only Canadian stock that's done really well is Canadian Natural. Tamarack and ARC Energy have underperformed many of my U.S. names. It's a jungle out there. Cheers
Btw since you follow Canadian O&G closely you might find it of value to check out the investorvillage website thread energy investing which is mainly O&G with a focus on Canadian producers. Many people there have the industry experience and insight that might impress you.